Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
